KUALA LUMPUR, Malaysia - Drive another spike into the heart of
one more bloodied Southeast Asia dream. Malaysia is in recession.
At the moment that Malaysia was to have showcased to the world a
decade of glitzy development - as the host of the Commonwealth
Games that start Friday - the sky seems to have fallen in, leaving
the region's longest-serving prime minister, Mahathir Mohamad,
stunned but hardly less combative.
While other regional leaders of his generation, such as
Singapore's Lee Kuan Yew and Indonesia's Suharto, have ceded or
been forced from power, Mahathir, 73, has responded to the crisis
by broadening his authority and becoming the first Asian head of
state to abandon previous support of the free-market economy
espoused by the International Monetary Fund.
''The free market has failed and failed miserably,'' Mahathir
said Sept. 1 in announcing foreign-exchange controls, ignoring the
fact that until the Asian economic downturn began last year
Malaysia had used the free market to create one of the region's
great economic success stories.
Economists said the new restrictions are sure to spook foreign
investors, whose capital Malaysia needs to recover. Mahathir
replies that, orthodox economics aside, Malaysia can generate
growth by lowering interest rates and increasing the money supply -
in effect, spending its way back into prosperity.
Mahathir's policies represent an open challenge to the IMF and
reflect the widespread frustration in Southeast Asia, where
Western-styled economies have collapsed, wiping out a generation of
growth.
The frustration has led to an ongoing debate, which has subtle
anti-American undertones, over the merits of IMF bailout packages,
the role of U.S. banks that encouraged now-broke governments and
foreign companies to borrow heavily, and the activities of Western
traders who can wreck a country's currency without regard for local
consequences. Mahathir contends that the region's crisis is a
Western conspiracy aimed at economic colonization.
The frustration is heightened by the apparent lack of success of
IMF remedies, such as slashing government spending and raising
interest rates. Even Thailand - which has followed the IMF
prescription to the letter - expects its economy to contract 8
percent this year and has not seen a substantial return of capital.
If Mahathir's formula works for Malaysia, the wisdom of the IMF's
draconian rescue packages will come under question in other
countries, Asian and European diplomats said.
Among Mahathir's new policies: In an attempt to draw back $8
billion that Malaysians have parked abroad and to undercut currency
speculators, he has made the local currency, the ringgit,
nonconvertible. This means the currency circulates only in Malaysia
and the Central Bank can set it at a fixed rate, now at about 3.8
to the dollar.
The trading of Malaysian stocks outside the country has been
banned and locals leaving the country can carry no more than the
equivalent of $2,600. Any foreigner buying Malaysian stocks will
have to hold them for at least a year before selling.
Massachusetts Institute of Technology economist Paul Krugman has
suggested exchange controls as a risky but plausible step toward
Asian recovery. But in an open letter on the Internet to Mahathir,
he warned that the controls should be considered only temporary and
should not be viewed as alternative to real economic reform.
Mahathir, who has ruled for 17 years, embraced IMF reforms when
Southeast Asia was hit by recession in the mid-1980s. The result
was a decade of growth and development - and a blueprint to turn
Kuala Lumpur into one of Asia's most modern capitals by the start
of the Commonwealth Games, which are attracting 6,000 athletes and
thousands of visitors and journalists.
Although economic gloom and political uncertainty caused by
Mahathir's sacking of his popular finance minister and heir
apparent, Anwar Ibrahim - a staunch supporter of IMF reforms - have
distracted Malaysians' attention from the games, Kuala Lumpur has
indeed been transformed.
In the past two months, a $6-billion international airport
opened, as did two rail lines. An expansive and beautiful downtown
park was built in the shadow of the world's two tallest buildings.
A $60-million, 885-seat concert hall was christened by the new
Malaysian Philharmonic Orchestra, whose members were recruited from
22 countries (only four musicians are Malaysians) at salaries in
the $45,000 range.
Anwar's sacking came Sept. 2, six days after Malaysia officially
announced the economy was in recession, with the ringgit having
lost 40 percent of its value, the stock market down 75 percent and
new car sales off 70 percent, all over the past year. Mahathir, who
took over Anwar's portfolio as finance minister, told reporters
Tuesday that he had thought of retiring this year but had
reconsidered in light of firing Anwar.
Highly regarded by global economists, Anwar, 51, who also was
deputy prime minister, did not take his dismissal quietly. Saying
he dared not leave his home for fear of arrest, he denounced a
smear campaign accusing him of corruption, sexual improprieties and
being a CIA agent and said he would lead a people's movement for
political and economic reform.
His challenge to the very system that the autocratic Mahathir
has built was unheard of in a country where debate is tantamount to
dissent and dissent is generally considered treasonous. When
critics, for instance, questioned government policies in 1987
during an inter-party squabble, Mahathir simply put about 100 of
them in jail. He continues to exercise absolute control over the
local media.
Although Mahathir is said to genuinely believe the West - its
media, financial institutions and governments - are out to get
Malaysia, and his relations with Washington are often testy,
Malaysia itself remains open to the West and an important U.S.
ally.
The United States is Malaysia's biggest trading partner and
largest investor. The U.S. and Malaysian militaries routinely
conduct joint exercises and U.S. ships regularly call at Malaysian
ports. Fifteen thousand Malaysian students study in the United
States.